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Exploratory models of long‐term crustal flow and resulting seismicity across the Alpine‐Aegean orogen

Identifieur interne : 000076 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000075; suivant : 000077

Exploratory models of long‐term crustal flow and resulting seismicity across the Alpine‐Aegean orogen

Auteurs : Tracy M. Howe [États-Unis] ; Peter Bird [États-Unis]

Source :

RBID : ISTEX:9BE8B6D3E550FFD644A71626F29D77C8627FA4F9

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Long‐term crustal flow is computed with a kinematic finite element model based on iterated weighted least squares fits to data and prior constraints. Data include 773 fault traces, 106 fault offset rates, 510 geodetic velocities, 2566 principal stress azimuths, and velocity boundary conditions representing the rigid parts of the Eurasia, Africa, and Anatolia plates. Model predictions include long‐term velocities, fault slip rates, and distributed permanent strain rates between faults. One model assumes that geodetic velocities measured adjacent to the Aegean Trench reflect a temporarily locked subduction zone; in this case, long‐term subduction velocity averages 45 mm/yr and rapid crustal extension is predicted in the southern Aegean Sea. Another model assumes steady creeping subduction; in this case, subduction velocity averages only 29 mm/yr, and the eastern Aegean Seafloor is predicted to be more nearly rigid. Long‐term seismicity maps are computed for each model on the basis of the SHIFT hypotheses and previous global calibrations of plate boundary earthquake production. Retrospective comparisons to seismic catalogs are encouraging: map patterns, spatial distribution functions, and total earthquake counts are all comparable. While neither model accurately predicts earthquake rates at all magnitudes, the creeping subduction model is more accurate for strong m6+ events, which dominate the seismic hazard.

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DOI: 10.1029/2009TC002565


Affiliations:


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<term>Active deformation</term>
<term>Active faults</term>
<term>Active subduction zone</term>
<term>Actual earthquakes</term>
<term>Actual seismicity</term>
<term>Additional fault</term>
<term>Adria</term>
<term>Aegean trench</term>
<term>Africa plate</term>
<term>Agios efstratios</term>
<term>Alpi dolomitiche</term>
<term>Alps</term>
<term>Alternative models</term>
<term>Anatolian</term>
<term>Anatolian fault system</term>
<term>Apennine</term>
<term>Apennine front</term>
<term>Apennines</term>
<term>Authors dispute</term>
<term>Average velocity</term>
<term>Azimuth</term>
<term>Benchmark</term>
<term>Benedetti</term>
<term>Boundary conditions</term>
<term>Carpathians</term>
<term>Catalog</term>
<term>Central europe</term>
<term>Comparable type</term>
<term>Comparison trapezoid</term>
<term>Completeness threshold</term>
<term>Confidence limits</term>
<term>Confidence sectors</term>
<term>Constraint</term>
<term>Corinth</term>
<term>Corinth gulf</term>
<term>Corner magnitude</term>
<term>Crustal</term>
<term>Crustal extension</term>
<term>Crustal flow</term>
<term>Crustal motion</term>
<term>Cumulative area</term>
<term>Current plate motions</term>
<term>Data method</term>
<term>Deformation</term>
<term>Deformation rates</term>
<term>Deforming lithosphere</term>
<term>Dextral</term>
<term>Dextral faults</term>
<term>Discrete faults</term>
<term>Dynamic modeling</term>
<term>Earth planet</term>
<term>Earthquake</term>
<term>Earthquake analysis</term>
<term>Eastern carpathians</term>
<term>Eastern mediterranean</term>
<term>Eastern part</term>
<term>Element model</term>
<term>Engineering seismology</term>
<term>Eurasia</term>
<term>Eurasia plate</term>
<term>Europe figure</term>
<term>Evaporite</term>
<term>Evaporite sediments</term>
<term>Exploratory models</term>
<term>Extensional heave</term>
<term>Fault</term>
<term>Fault heave rates</term>
<term>Fault system</term>
<term>Fault trace</term>
<term>Fault traces</term>
<term>Finite element</term>
<term>Finite elements</term>
<term>Geodetic</term>
<term>Geodetic benchmarks</term>
<term>Geodetic data</term>
<term>Geodetic velocities</term>
<term>Geologic</term>
<term>Geologic data</term>
<term>Geologic features</term>
<term>Geophys</term>
<term>Giardini</term>
<term>Giudicarie fault system</term>
<term>Global seismicity</term>
<term>Great earthquakes</term>
<term>Hazard maps</term>
<term>Heave</term>
<term>Heave rate</term>
<term>Heave rates</term>
<term>High seismicity</term>
<term>Higher elevations</term>
<term>Horizontal compression</term>
<term>Iaspei handbook</term>
<term>Instrumental seismicity</term>
<term>Interplate shear zone</term>
<term>Italian peninsula</term>
<term>Kinematic</term>
<term>Kinematic models</term>
<term>Lack data</term>
<term>Large volume</term>
<term>Lett</term>
<term>Lithosphere</term>
<term>Lower limit</term>
<term>Main interplate shear zone</term>
<term>Major faults</term>
<term>Mantle convection</term>
<term>Master faults</term>
<term>Mediterranean basin</term>
<term>Mediterranean ridge</term>
<term>Misfit</term>
<term>Model artifact</term>
<term>Model domain</term>
<term>Model predictions</term>
<term>Modeling</term>
<term>Neokinema</term>
<term>Neokinema modeling</term>
<term>Neokinema models</term>
<term>Neotectonic</term>
<term>Neotectonic kinematic analysis</term>
<term>Neotectonic modeling</term>
<term>Neotectonics</term>
<term>Normal faults</term>
<term>Northeastern front</term>
<term>Northern aegean</term>
<term>Northern apennines</term>
<term>Northern greece</term>
<term>Northern italy</term>
<term>Numerical modeling</term>
<term>Nyst</term>
<term>Objective function</term>
<term>Orogen</term>
<term>Pacific basin</term>
<term>Pannonian basin</term>
<term>Past models</term>
<term>Permanent deformation</term>
<term>Philippines orogen</term>
<term>Plate boundaries</term>
<term>Plate boundary</term>
<term>Principal stress direction</term>
<term>Principal stress directions</term>
<term>Relative plate motion</term>
<term>Relative plate velocity</term>
<term>Rigid parts</term>
<term>Seismic</term>
<term>Seismic catalogs</term>
<term>Seismic hazard</term>
<term>Seismic subduction model</term>
<term>Seismicity</term>
<term>Seismicity coefficients</term>
<term>Seismicity maps</term>
<term>Seismogenic portion</term>
<term>Shallow earthquakes</term>
<term>Shallow seismicity</term>
<term>Shift hypotheses</term>
<term>Slow subduction</term>
<term>Southeastern tyrrhenian</term>
<term>Southern aegean</term>
<term>Southern alps</term>
<term>Southern apennines</term>
<term>Southern greece</term>
<term>Southwestern margin</term>
<term>Space sciences</term>
<term>Spatial distribution functions</term>
<term>Stable eurasia</term>
<term>Standard deviation</term>
<term>Standard deviations</term>
<term>Strain rate</term>
<term>Stress direction</term>
<term>Stress directions</term>
<term>Stress field</term>
<term>Strong earthquakes</term>
<term>Subducting plate</term>
<term>Subduction</term>
<term>Subduction model</term>
<term>Subduction model forecast</term>
<term>Subduction zone</term>
<term>Subduction zones</term>
<term>Target rate</term>
<term>Tectonic</term>
<term>Tectonic fault</term>
<term>Tectonics</term>
<term>Threshold magnitude</term>
<term>Thrust faults</term>
<term>Trace length</term>
<term>Trench</term>
<term>Unit weight</term>
<term>Various stages</term>
<term>Velocity boundary conditions</term>
<term>Velocity difference</term>
<term>Velocity fields</term>
<term>Velocity reference frame</term>
<term>Velocity vectors</term>
<term>View comparisons</term>
<term>Vrancea region</term>
<term>Western alps</term>
<term>World stress</term>
<term>Zone</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Teeft" xml:lang="en">
<term>Active deformation</term>
<term>Active faults</term>
<term>Active subduction zone</term>
<term>Actual earthquakes</term>
<term>Actual seismicity</term>
<term>Additional fault</term>
<term>Adria</term>
<term>Aegean trench</term>
<term>Africa plate</term>
<term>Agios efstratios</term>
<term>Alpi dolomitiche</term>
<term>Alps</term>
<term>Alternative models</term>
<term>Anatolian</term>
<term>Anatolian fault system</term>
<term>Apennine</term>
<term>Apennine front</term>
<term>Apennines</term>
<term>Authors dispute</term>
<term>Average velocity</term>
<term>Azimuth</term>
<term>Benchmark</term>
<term>Benedetti</term>
<term>Boundary conditions</term>
<term>Carpathians</term>
<term>Catalog</term>
<term>Central europe</term>
<term>Comparable type</term>
<term>Comparison trapezoid</term>
<term>Completeness threshold</term>
<term>Confidence limits</term>
<term>Confidence sectors</term>
<term>Constraint</term>
<term>Corinth</term>
<term>Corinth gulf</term>
<term>Corner magnitude</term>
<term>Crustal</term>
<term>Crustal extension</term>
<term>Crustal flow</term>
<term>Crustal motion</term>
<term>Cumulative area</term>
<term>Current plate motions</term>
<term>Data method</term>
<term>Deformation</term>
<term>Deformation rates</term>
<term>Deforming lithosphere</term>
<term>Dextral</term>
<term>Dextral faults</term>
<term>Discrete faults</term>
<term>Dynamic modeling</term>
<term>Earth planet</term>
<term>Earthquake</term>
<term>Earthquake analysis</term>
<term>Eastern carpathians</term>
<term>Eastern mediterranean</term>
<term>Eastern part</term>
<term>Element model</term>
<term>Engineering seismology</term>
<term>Eurasia</term>
<term>Eurasia plate</term>
<term>Europe figure</term>
<term>Evaporite</term>
<term>Evaporite sediments</term>
<term>Exploratory models</term>
<term>Extensional heave</term>
<term>Fault</term>
<term>Fault heave rates</term>
<term>Fault system</term>
<term>Fault trace</term>
<term>Fault traces</term>
<term>Finite element</term>
<term>Finite elements</term>
<term>Geodetic</term>
<term>Geodetic benchmarks</term>
<term>Geodetic data</term>
<term>Geodetic velocities</term>
<term>Geologic</term>
<term>Geologic data</term>
<term>Geologic features</term>
<term>Geophys</term>
<term>Giardini</term>
<term>Giudicarie fault system</term>
<term>Global seismicity</term>
<term>Great earthquakes</term>
<term>Hazard maps</term>
<term>Heave</term>
<term>Heave rate</term>
<term>Heave rates</term>
<term>High seismicity</term>
<term>Higher elevations</term>
<term>Horizontal compression</term>
<term>Iaspei handbook</term>
<term>Instrumental seismicity</term>
<term>Interplate shear zone</term>
<term>Italian peninsula</term>
<term>Kinematic</term>
<term>Kinematic models</term>
<term>Lack data</term>
<term>Large volume</term>
<term>Lett</term>
<term>Lithosphere</term>
<term>Lower limit</term>
<term>Main interplate shear zone</term>
<term>Major faults</term>
<term>Mantle convection</term>
<term>Master faults</term>
<term>Mediterranean basin</term>
<term>Mediterranean ridge</term>
<term>Misfit</term>
<term>Model artifact</term>
<term>Model domain</term>
<term>Model predictions</term>
<term>Modeling</term>
<term>Neokinema</term>
<term>Neokinema modeling</term>
<term>Neokinema models</term>
<term>Neotectonic</term>
<term>Neotectonic kinematic analysis</term>
<term>Neotectonic modeling</term>
<term>Neotectonics</term>
<term>Normal faults</term>
<term>Northeastern front</term>
<term>Northern aegean</term>
<term>Northern apennines</term>
<term>Northern greece</term>
<term>Northern italy</term>
<term>Numerical modeling</term>
<term>Nyst</term>
<term>Objective function</term>
<term>Orogen</term>
<term>Pacific basin</term>
<term>Pannonian basin</term>
<term>Past models</term>
<term>Permanent deformation</term>
<term>Philippines orogen</term>
<term>Plate boundaries</term>
<term>Plate boundary</term>
<term>Principal stress direction</term>
<term>Principal stress directions</term>
<term>Relative plate motion</term>
<term>Relative plate velocity</term>
<term>Rigid parts</term>
<term>Seismic</term>
<term>Seismic catalogs</term>
<term>Seismic hazard</term>
<term>Seismic subduction model</term>
<term>Seismicity</term>
<term>Seismicity coefficients</term>
<term>Seismicity maps</term>
<term>Seismogenic portion</term>
<term>Shallow earthquakes</term>
<term>Shallow seismicity</term>
<term>Shift hypotheses</term>
<term>Slow subduction</term>
<term>Southeastern tyrrhenian</term>
<term>Southern aegean</term>
<term>Southern alps</term>
<term>Southern apennines</term>
<term>Southern greece</term>
<term>Southwestern margin</term>
<term>Space sciences</term>
<term>Spatial distribution functions</term>
<term>Stable eurasia</term>
<term>Standard deviation</term>
<term>Standard deviations</term>
<term>Strain rate</term>
<term>Stress direction</term>
<term>Stress directions</term>
<term>Stress field</term>
<term>Strong earthquakes</term>
<term>Subducting plate</term>
<term>Subduction</term>
<term>Subduction model</term>
<term>Subduction model forecast</term>
<term>Subduction zone</term>
<term>Subduction zones</term>
<term>Target rate</term>
<term>Tectonic</term>
<term>Tectonic fault</term>
<term>Tectonics</term>
<term>Threshold magnitude</term>
<term>Thrust faults</term>
<term>Trace length</term>
<term>Trench</term>
<term>Unit weight</term>
<term>Various stages</term>
<term>Velocity boundary conditions</term>
<term>Velocity difference</term>
<term>Velocity fields</term>
<term>Velocity reference frame</term>
<term>Velocity vectors</term>
<term>View comparisons</term>
<term>Vrancea region</term>
<term>Western alps</term>
<term>World stress</term>
<term>Zone</term>
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<term>Séisme</term>
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<front>
<div type="abstract">Long‐term crustal flow is computed with a kinematic finite element model based on iterated weighted least squares fits to data and prior constraints. Data include 773 fault traces, 106 fault offset rates, 510 geodetic velocities, 2566 principal stress azimuths, and velocity boundary conditions representing the rigid parts of the Eurasia, Africa, and Anatolia plates. Model predictions include long‐term velocities, fault slip rates, and distributed permanent strain rates between faults. One model assumes that geodetic velocities measured adjacent to the Aegean Trench reflect a temporarily locked subduction zone; in this case, long‐term subduction velocity averages 45 mm/yr and rapid crustal extension is predicted in the southern Aegean Sea. Another model assumes steady creeping subduction; in this case, subduction velocity averages only 29 mm/yr, and the eastern Aegean Seafloor is predicted to be more nearly rigid. Long‐term seismicity maps are computed for each model on the basis of the SHIFT hypotheses and previous global calibrations of plate boundary earthquake production. Retrospective comparisons to seismic catalogs are encouraging: map patterns, spatial distribution functions, and total earthquake counts are all comparable. While neither model accurately predicts earthquake rates at all magnitudes, the creeping subduction model is more accurate for strong m6+ events, which dominate the seismic hazard.</div>
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